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Archive | October, 2008

Playing the Blame Game

Crisis of Confidence

Most Americans believe the current financial crisis was caused by subprime mortgages and falling house prices but the root causes are much deeper. Despite the passage of a $700 billion dollar bailout bill there is a crisis of confidence in the US dollar and the US economy. Since World War Two the US has been an economic and industrial powerhouse. The current crisis has sent shockwaves through world financial markets including the interbank Forex and confidence in the stability of the American economic system has been seriously damaged.

The Crisis Spreads to Europe

The crisis quickly spread to Europe causing unheard of disruptions in credit markets, interbank lending, and the banking industry. Access to credit froze, banks ceased selling gold, Forex markets were unpredictable, and European governments were forced to inject unprecedented amounts of money into the financial sector. The credit freeze has deeply affected the banking sectors and the crisis of confidence in the US dollar limits both retail and interbank forex opportunities.

Looking For Someone to Blame

When things go horribly wrong it is human nature to look for something or someone to blame and the current crisis is no exception. Since the crisis started in the United States most European countries are placing the blame directly on the Unites States. Gordon Brown Prime Minister of the UK, our closest ally, has stated openly that his country’s financial problems are an import from the US. He did not explain, however, how the American government somehow forced British banks to write mortgages for more than the value of the homes being purchased.

Blaming the US

Some world leaders are openly taking pleasure in the American crisis. Vladimir Putin stated. “Everything happening now in the economic and financial sphere began in the United States. This is not the irresponsibility of specific individuals but the irresponsibility of the system that claims leadership.” German finance minister Peer Steinbrück said, “The origin and centre of gravity of the problem is clearly in the USA.”

European Perception of the Crisis

Somehow the perception in Europe is that the problems faced by the EU and the UK are actually American imports. Many European leaders such as France’s Nicolas Sarkozy take pleasure in discrediting the American economic model saying that the, “idea of an all-powerful market without any rules and any political intervention is mad . . . [and that] self-regulation is finished. Laissez faire is finished. The all-powerful market which is always right is finished.”It would seem that the European perception is that American markets operate ‘without any rules’ when nothing could be further from the truth.

What most critics fail to realize is that the current financial is global and any solution will have to be a cooperative effort among nations. Playing the blame game in a time of serious crisis only inhibits the search for a permanent solution. Despite the current economic crisis the dollar remains the currency of choice for both retail and interbank Forex exchanges.

Quick Forex Tip: Interbank fx trading determines pricing in all levels of currency markets. Spreads available to interbank traders are sharp and unavailable to outsiders. Interbank traders who can guarantee a large number of transactions for large amounts can demand a smaller spread between the bid and ask price. Unfortunately these same spreads are not available to the average investor making relatively small transactions. Thus, for the average investor to participate in interbank fx trading, s/he must do so through the use of a broker.

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Gold and Interbank Forex

Sales of Gold

Current economic conditions in both the US and Europe have caused a slowdown in the sale of gold by banks. Sales of gold by European banks are expected to be lower this year since banks are trying to mitigate the risks of paper assets. Banks in Asia and the Middle East are expected to become buyers of gold to diversify away from the US dollar. The main reason cited for central banks holding gold is the instability of the US dollar.

Gold and Dollar Stability

Although the dollar has rallied against the Euro recently European banks are uneasy about the long term stability of the Dollar. The European Central Bank Gold agreement allows the sale of 500 tons a year but sales have fallen short of the ceiling placed on gold sales and current sales amount to 357 tons. Said metals consultant Philip Klapwijk, “Given the damage done to a lot of other paper assets that were formerly considered secure, there will be greater risk aversion among central banks.” This will only boost gold’s status within central bank reserves.” Germany’s Bundesbank, with the second largest gold reserves in the world after the U.S. Federal Reserve, announced that it would sell no gold during the next 12 months. After announcing the sale of 250 tons of gold the Swiss National Bank announced it had no plans to sell more gold.

US Dollar Questioned

Earlier in the year the Dollar slipped to record lows against the Euro and many European central banks are expressing doubts over the long term future of the dollar. Again Mr. Klapwijk states, “There are more and more questions being placed against the U.S. dollar and its role at centre of existing international financial system.” Since World War Two the US dollar has been the standard against which all other currencies are measured. The current crisis in the US has many questioning the wisdom of pegging currencies against the dollar. Even so the US dollar remains the currency of choice for Forex investors and interbank Forex markets.

Demand

Demand for gold is predicted to increase with corresponding rises in price. Financial concerns are making gold more attractive as a reserve asset for central banks. Gold is seen as a confidence building and stabilizing influence on a country’s currency. While gold prices are not expected to skyrocket as in the past, increased demand is expected to increase prices.

Effect on Interbank Forex

What effect this will have on the interbank Forex markets is open to wide speculation. Markets, including the Interbank Forex, are taking a wait and see approach due to the US financial crisis and concerns about the proposed bailout. The US bailout bill passed overwhelmingly in the US Senate and a vote is expected in the House of Representatives by Friday. Until then interbank Forex markets will probably remain in a state of limbo.

Quick Forex Tip: Interbank forex dealers have access to better spreads than the average investor because of the size of the transactions. Small investors who want to trade interbank fx now have access through the use of forex brokers who are able to put together large transactions. Additionally, many very wealthy individuals trade interbank fx hoping to profit from currency fluctuations. Whether you have a lot or a little money to invest, interbank forex trading is a great option because forex markets are almost recession proof.

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